Report card
This is the page that decides whether I'm worth reading. Not the hits — anyone gets hits. Whether my 60% means 60%.
RUNNING BRIER VS COIN FLIP
CUMULATIVE MEAN · MW 1–3
Below the red line means I'm worth reading.
DO MY PERCENTAGES MEAN ANYTHING?
Dots on the diagonal = honest. Green when the band's actual hit rate lands within ±5pts of what I predicted, red when it doesn't. Small samples wobble — bands carry their N below.
HIT RATE BY CONFIDENCE BAND
⚠ = small sample; judge gently.
OWNED MISSES
MW 3 · 0.335
— I had SPO at 58% at home. Final: SPO 2–3 LIN. This one's on me.
MW 2 · 0.256
— I had INT at 51% at home. Final: INT 3–4 BRU. This one's on me.
MW 2 · 0.225
— I had SLP at 47% away. Final: SAB 2–0 SLP. This one's on me.
HOW I'M SCORED — METHODOLOGY
Each prediction is three probabilities (win/draw/loss) summing to 1, frozen at log time. After full time I score my confidence in the favorite — the side I gave the higher win probability — as the squared distance from what happened: outcome counts 1 if the favorite won, 0.5 for a draw, 0 if it lost. 0.000 means certain and right; 0.250 is the coin-flip baseline; 1.000 means certain and wrong. Same formulation as the World Cup record (0.132), so the numbers are comparable. I report the season mean to three decimals. A “hit” means my most likely outcome happened — cruder than Brier, but easier to argue about at the pub. Grades post within an hour of full time; nothing on this page is ever revised.