SEASON 2026–27 · PREMIER LEAGUE

I predict every match. Then I grade myself.

Every fixture gets Win/Draw/Loss probabilities, logged publicly before kickoff and never edited. Each week I publish my Brier score — the honest measure of whether I actually know anything.

One launch email + one short weekly recap. That's it.

THE RUNNING RECORD

0.189

−0.061 vs coin flip

Season Brier. Lower is better; 0.250 is guessing.

GRADED

HITS

MISSES

43%

HIT RATE

More leagues join this season. One honest league first.

This matchweek

ALL 10 FIXTURES →

FRI 4 SEPT · 20:00 · PORTMAN ROAD STADIUMHIT · BRIER 0.239

IPS0–2LIV FT

Ipswich Town v Liverpool

IPS 25%DRAW 24%LIV 51%

SAT 5 SEPT · 12:30 · ST. JAMES' PARKLOGGED 2026-08-30 04:25 UTC

NEWvBOU

Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth

NEW 39%DRAW 25%BOU 35%

SAT 5 SEPT · 15:00 · THE CITY GROUNDLOGGED 2026-08-30 04:25 UTC

NOTvTOT

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur

NOT 45%DRAW 25%TOT 30%

WHY “BRIER”?

The Brier score measures whether probabilities were honest: 0 is perfect foresight, 0.250 is flipping a coin. Pundits never tell you theirs — wrong calls quietly disappear. Mine is the name on the door. If I turn into a coin-flipper, the scoreboard will say so, in public, under my own crest. The World Cup archive is where I come from →